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Stan Wawrinka to win Outright @ 4/1 Paddy Power & Boylesports.*********Stan Wawrinka -2.5 Game Handicap to beat Jo Wilfred Tsonga @ 10/11 Betfred 20/23 Betvictor or 5/6 SkyBet & Boylesports.*********Venus Williams v Anastasija Pavlyuchenkova Total Sets - 3 SETS @ 6/4 Ladbrokes & Betway.

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The Cruncher

This guys’ a bore – stats stats stats stats …. Gave up academia long ago, makes betting pay. Asian handicaps, sectional timing, probability. Weight for age, raindrops, dosage, distance. Clear the way Cruncher.  

 
Latest tips
  • Golf 24/09/2014
    The Cruncher's Ryder Cup Best Bets

    Anyone who took 10/11 about Europe on the eve of the USPGA Championship will be feeling chipper as they are now a best priced 4/6 and I still think that price is on the big side containing four of the five top ranked players in the world and playing at home where they are undefeated for 21 years in what is forecast to be fairly windy conditions unlikely to appeal to the visitors. I couldn’t put anyone off taking 4/6 but instead I prefer Europe to win -1.5 points at 6/5 against an American team without Tiger Woods and Dustin Johnson and many of whom are currently struggling for form. I won’t be moving from my TV for three days so will have plenty of bets to keep up my interest if it looks like a runaway win for Europe and here are what I have placed so far.

    I don’t have a strong view on Top European Points Scorer as I suspect no player will play all five rubbers but the Top American Points Scorer market is much more interesting and Rickie Fowler heads the market at 6/1 based on top 5 positions in all Majors this season. The fact remains, however, he has only won one PGA Tour event in his career which only underlines how weak this US team is. The Americans like to spread their team around more than Europe so no one plays less than three times so I fancy taking a chance on an outsider and Zach Johnson strikes me as very much overpriced at 16/1 in four places to each-way stakes and rates the best value bet of this year’s Ryder Cup. His accuracy off the tee should mean he plays both foursomes matches and at least one four-ball game if he forges a successful partnership and, with a record of 6 wins, 4 losses and one half, this gritty competitor with one of the best short-game skills in the event has the best record in this event of their 12 man team who have played in more than one Ryder Cup. How he is double the price of Jim Furyk who has lost almost twice as many matches as he has won is a mystery. I can Johnson being well tipped up in this market when the big previews come out so that 16/1 may not last.

    I think Stephen Gallacher is overpriced at 9/2 to be the Top European Wildcard in a three-horse race with Poulter and Westwood. Poulter is favourite at Evens given he lives for these three days and, as yet, has never failed to deliver but Gallacher can count on the home Scottish support on a course that he has won a PGA Tour event on so he will be given chances to play by Paul McGinley rather than sitting in the shadows. Westwood will surely be handed the Senior role of partnering a rookie given his experience, maybe even Gallacher but I hope not for the sake of this bet. I’d have Gallacher nearer a 3/1 shot in this market and shorter than Westwood who, give his age and form this season, might only get three games. Poulter is likely to up his game for theses three days but after a season affected by injury niggles, he will need to.

    Jordan Spieth heads the Top Debutant market but he is not in the same form as earlier in the season so looks too tight to me at 5/2 in a six-man contest and I want to be with a European anyway as it’s tough for rookies on away soil. I have already made the case for Stephen Gallacher as Top European Wildcard so at 6/1 I like his odds but will dutch with Jamie Donaldson at 9/2 as Top Debutant as he is in better form than Victor Dubuisson.

    As I am not convinced that Spieth will be at his best, in a three-horse race that also includes Patrick Read, I would prefer to take a chance on Jimmy Walker to be Top American Rookie at 15/8 who played well in The Open in July on his previous trip to these shores.

  • Formula 1 18/07/2014
    German Grand Prix

    Bottas Set to Shine Again in Germany

    The F1 road show moves to Hockenheim this week for the German Grand Prix. The Herman Tilke modified Hockenheim circuit alternates with the Nurburgring with the past two races at this circuit in 2010 and 2012 being won by the Ferrari of double World Champion Fernando Alonso who looks unlikely to have a chance to make it three in a row this year.

    The circuit characteristics show fast straights with tight hairpins for the first part of the lap and then into the tight and twisty stadium section which means cars have to be balanced to suit various requirements. The weather appears to be set fair for Friday practice and Saturdays qualifying but with showers forecast for race day on Sunday a potential in play betting market could really show good value if you can stay ahead of the bookies in the changeable conditions.

    Again the Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg appear to be the men to beat with both men arriving here on a high for varying reasons. Hamilton will be buoyed following his Silverstone victory, coupled with Rosberg’s retirement, meaning he now only trails the German by 4 points in the drivers’ championship. On the other hand following the disappointment of Silverstone Rosberg has since got married and signed a new multiyear deal with Mercedes so surely must come to his home Grand Prix in good spirits. The prices reflect the Mercedes dominance with Hamilton a best price of 7/10 with Bwin and Rosberg slightly bigger at 2/1 with BetFred. The Gym Rat sees Hamilton on a high and just can’t see him making anymore poor mistakes in qualifying and the 11/4 with Ladbrokes about Hamilton gaining pole position, completing the fastest lap and winning the race looks appealing.

    Of the other teams and drivers Williams appear to be the closest to Mercedes on outright pace. Young Finnish driver Valteri Bottas has continually outshone Felipe Massa this year and the Gym Rat sees him doing so again and taking the final step on the podium at 15/8 with BetVictor.

    For those punters looking for some value and somewhat of a novelty bet how about the first driver to retire. Two names spring to the top of the page when the Gym Rat looks down the list, the kamikaze duo of Pastor Maldonado and Esteban Gutierrez. The duo appear to come together week after week with each man blaming the other for the incident. If these two are anywhere near one another after qualifying the 12/1 about Maldonado with William Hill and the 18/1 about Gutierrez with BET365 both look appealing.

    Bet Live Recommends

    Bottas Podium finish at 15/8 with BetVictor

  • Snooker 17/07/2014
    World Matchplay Darts

    BetVictor World Matchplay Outright and 1st round selections.

    Michael Van Gerwin - to win World Matchplay 2/1 General.

    Peter Wright - to win World Matchplay Each/way 25/1 Bet365 (1/2 odds 1-2)

    Name the finalists - Van Gerwin/Wright 20/1 PaddyPower, Van Gerwin/Anderson 14/1 Coral.

    2nd Quarter winner - James Wade 9/4 Bet365.

    3rd Quarter winner - Michael Smith 11/1 Coral.

    1st round ( best of 19 legs) 2-way Handicaps - Andy Hamilton -2.5 legs to beat Wayne Jones 4/5 general.

    Peter Wright -2.5 legs to beat Stephen Bunting 6/4 Bet365.

    1st round acca (1 game from each of the 4x 1st round sessions) prices BetVictor.
    Whitlock to beat Painter 1/3 (Saturday night)
    Chisnall to beat Winstanley 1/2 (Sunday afternoon)
    M.Smith to beat Pipe 8/11 (Sunday night)
    Wright to beat Bunting 4/6 (Monday night) £10 pays £57.50

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